Monday, February 25, 2013

Replacing Curtis Granderson

The news that Yankees' outfielder Curtis Granderson went down with a broken forearm Sunday must have panicked the Yankee faithful. The Yankees already had enough questions coming into the season before their best power hitter went down for at least the first month of the season. After the initial shock of the injury wore off, I'm sure most fans realized it wasn't going to sink the Bronx Bombers' season however. A slow start could certainly put the team behind the eight ball in the ultra-competitive AL East, but if the team can get league average play out of the Granderson replacement(s), they should be able to tread water.

The big question facing the Yankees' is if they can fill the hole with a league average player. In this post, I'm going to look at that teams options, and size-up which player or players would be best suited as the Granderson placeholder.

Internal Options:

The Yankees have four main options to fill in for Granderson currently in camp, only one of which is on the team's 40 man roster. The most attractive option to fill in is journeyman Juan Rivera. Rivera has been a below replacement level hitter since 2009, but has shown signs in his career of being a very competent hitter with no obvious platoon splits. Rivera's .286 OBP in 339 plate appearances last year for the Dodgers was terrible, so the Yankees are certainly not looking at a world beater here. However, Rivera seems most likely to fill the role of castoff veteran having a mini-career renaissance, that have held together the Yankees' lineups for the past few seasons.

The other three options seem to be no better than place holder or platoon options. Matt Diaz has made a career out of being the Braves fourth outfielder. Diaz' .364 career OBP against lefties would make a good fit to platoon against southpaws, but his numbers have been on the decline and he may not have much left in the tank. Utilityman Jayson Nix could do some spot fill in duty as well, but having a corner outfielder with a career OBP of below .300 isn't gonna help the team. The last option on the internal roster would be one of two prospects, Zoilo Almonte or Melky Mesa. Neither hitter has much plate discipline, but if one can catch fire and opening some eyes during spring training, they could find themselves breaking camp with the major league squad.

External Options:

The Yankees external options are fairly limited, and if I had to bet I'd say the team stays away from them. The first option would be to sign an aging free agent and hope for a reinvigoration playing in the Bronx. The veteran free agent with the most left in the tank offensively is probably Carlos Lee. Lee played mostly at first base last season, but has played the majority of his career in left field (albeit as one of the worst defensive outfielders in the game.) Lee was below league average last season, which he split between the Astros and Marlins, but had been very good major league hitter every other season of his career. The two biggest issues with signing Lee however are that he'll be a butcher in the outfield and that he'd probably be unhappy with a bench role upon Granderson's return. Old friends Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu are available as well. Abreu can still get on base at a pretty good clip, but coming into his age 39 season, may very well be washed up. Damon couldn't manage to hang around on the lowly Indians' roster last season, so their isn't much reason to believe he would be able to contribute for the Yanks.

The only other option for the team would be to make a trade. Two names that pop-up are highly paid veterans Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells. Although the Cubs and Angels would likely pick up most of the bill for either player, the Yankees would still have to deal with an unhappy fourth outfielder when Granderson comes back. It's possible the Yankees could add another replacement level outfielder into the mix, but no one worth speculating about.

I think most likely the Yankees will break camp with a Juan Rivera-Matt Diaz platoon. The Yankees like their veteran retreads as much as any team in the league, and a month out of those two players wouldn't kill the team's season. I think this option is the one most likely to play up to replacement level, and hold the fort for Granderson's return.

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