What will the 2015 Red Sox look like?

Let me start this post by saying I think the 2013 version of the Sox can certainly contend. A few things break right with the pitching staff and I think the Sox will be right in the thick of the playoff hunt. That being said, the odds of the team taking home a championship this year are slim, so I'm gonna jump ahead two years and take a look at what I think the team will look like in 2015, when hopefully the team will be in better shape. I'm going to avoid the bullpen, because bullpens are too volatile year-to-year for any sort of prediction.

Catcher

Ryan Lavarnway is obviously the catcher of the future for the team and hopefully by 2015 he'll have established himself as an above-average Major League backstop.  Lavarnway's minor league numbers suggest he has a ceiling of being one of the top offensive catchers in the game, but he's yet to live up to the potential. Should anything go wrong, the team could look to re-sign Saltalamacchia this offseason, but he could command more money on the free agent market than the Sox are willing to spend.

First Base

First base may be the hardest of all positions to project. It's certainly possible Mike Napoli could still be in town, but I would think he would get the bulk of his playing time taking over the DH spot for Big Papi. I don't think the everyday first basemen for the 2015 Sox is on the team or in the system. I believe the team will try to acquire a big name bat to fill the hole, similar to the Adrian Gonzalez pickup of a few years ago, but hopefully with better long-term results.

Second Base

You gotta believe it's gonna be old Dusty Two-Sacks holding down the second base position in 2015. The team holds an $11 million dollar option, that would presumably get exercised, unless something goes terribly wrong. It seems like he's a lot older, but it'll only be the Muddy Chicken's age 31 season, so he should still be a few years from a significant decline in defense or offense. Hell the team, may even have him locked up to longer contract long before they ever have to exercise the option.

Shortstop

Top-prospect Xander Bogaerts is the odds on favorite to take over the shortstop role in the next few seasons. If things break right Bogaerts could be entering his second season with the big club and looking for a big sophomore year. It's possible he gets moved to third before 2015 though, in which case the team will probably still be plugging in stopgap players as they seemingly have been since Nomar left town or hoping prospect Deven Marrero is a keeper.

Third Base

Hopefully by '15 Will Middlebrooks will have established himself as solid above-average third basemen. His rookie campaign would certainly suggest he's heading in that direction, but questions about his on-base ability may hamper his stock before 2015. As mentioned earlier Xander Bogaerts also may have moved over to third by this point in his career, in which case the Sox may have to move on from Middlebrooks, whether he establishes himself as an outstanding trade chip or if he fades into a backup role.

Outfield

Jackie Bradley Jr., Jackie Bradley Jr., and Jackie Bradley, Jr. C'mon, he's awesome, he can play three positions at once right?  OK, maybe not, but hopefully by 2015 Bradley will have a year of patrolling center under his belt. Left and right could still be question marks though. Shane Victorino will still be under contract and could very well still be an effective player. If not he should be a solid, if overpaid, fourth outfielder. Another top prospect like Bryce Brentz could also be ready to take over an everyday role by then, provided he's not shooting himself in the leg on a regular basis. Outfield could also be another spot that the team looks to acquire a big bat either through free agency or a trade.

Designated Hitter

As I alluded to earlier, if Mike Napoli is still kicking around (which would presumably mean his health issues haven't caused too many problems) he'll probably see the bulk of his playing time at DH. If Napoli's long gone by 2015 though, it's anyone's guess what the team will do. Most teams nowadays like to use the DH to give position players a break from the field, so it's certainly possible that's the direction the Sox go.

Starting Pitching

Starting pitching could go a lot of ways for the Sox. On one hand they could still be looking at a staff anchored by Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Felix Doubront. On the other hand the Sox could be looking at a staff filled with youngsters like top prospects Matt Barnes, Allen Webster, and Rubby De La Rosa. Buchholz will be set to make $12 million in 2015, so he seems like a safe bet to be kicking around the team still. Doubront will be in his first year of arbitration, so if he's continues to progress, he should have at least a bullpen slot. Lester however is only signed through 2014, so the future's anyone's guess with him. If he returns to his pre-2012 form, the team will hopefully have locked him up to a longer term deal, but there's no way of telling at this point. Which free agents or prospects will fill out the rotation is anyone's guess, but if I had to guess it'd be at least one of the three aforementioned prospects and a moderate-to-high priced free agent/trade acquisition.

Wacky Logos of the NL East

Whether it's a style from a bygone age or just a marketing scheme gone awry, baseball history is littered with odd logo choices. With the possible exception of recent expansion teams, almost every Major League ballclub has a bizarre logo or two hiding somewhere in their closets. I'm going to attempt to identify the weirdest logo from each franchise's history, dating back to the club's early history. Today I start with the National League East.

BRAVES

The Braves' laughing Indian head logo was a staple of the organization from the 1957 season in Milwaukee up until a 1990 redesign that emphasized the tomahawk logo. The Native American depicted in the logo is supposed to be screaming (presumably some sort of war chant), but appears to just be laughing hysterically. A recent attempt to revive the logo for an alternate batting practice hat was squashed by the team, after some criticism from Native American groups. The logo was dropped with good reason, not only is it a potentially insensitive caricature, it's also just plain weird looking. The logo looks more like a guy who belongs in Fishbone, than being the logo of a Major League Baseball franchise.

Marlins

Since the franchise dates back to just 1993, there were slim pickings when it came to the weirdest Marlins logo. Although the new logo is pretty weird, with it's oversized M and abstract Marlin, I decided to go with an alternate cap logo used from 1999 to 2002. What I find so strange about it was that the marlin wrapped around an F was the team's logo since inception, but they apparently felt they needed an alternate logo and went lazy by just swapping out the F for an M. They weren't even associated with Miami at the time, so it's apparently just a second reference in one logo to the team's nickname. Plus, I've always wondered in the marlin in the logo is supposed to be alive or stuffed, cause that is definitely a pose a taxidermist would give a dead fish.

Mets

What, you don't remember when the Mets moved to Mercury and changed their logo to some sort of pan-sexual gender sign? Well it happened for one night during baseball's ill-fated Turn Ahead the Clock promotion in 1999. For most teams the promotion meant sporting terrible uniforms such as these beauties, but for the Mets in meant a one night only complete rebranding. Everything about it is terrible. Mercury? Really the planet closest to the sun. I suppose it was used for alliteration purposes, but Mars would have at least made theoretical sense (colonies on Mars and such.) And why is there a picture of the moon? And the bizarre alien gender sign? So many questions. Too bad this horrible, horrible promotion only lasted one season.

Phillies

This Phillies logo used from 1970 through 1983 seems to be a scene from School House Rock, of two colonial-era children learning to play baseball. Presumably it's playing up Philadelphia's significance to the birth the U.S., but boy is it bizarre. Did any self-respecting adult in the Philadelphia area actually sport any merchandise with this logo? Was the Phillies management specifically targeting children who loved history? Are these kids time-travelers, hence their anachronistic playing of a game that had yet to be invented? 

Nationals/Expos

The Nationals/Expos franchise doesn't have much to work with, but I'm going with the traditional Expos logo, mostly because it confused the hell out of me as a kid. I seriously didn't realize for at least ten years that there was even an M in there. I always wondered what the hell "elb" stood for, but apparently it's an "e" for Expos, no "l' whatsoever, and a "b" for baseball. Twelve-year-old me would have been floored by this knowledge. In hindsight I think it's a pretty cool logo, but I think the brain trust behind the Expos may have gone a little two high concept. Although perhaps that was a calculated move to play up the whole World Expo thing.

Everybody Loves Jackie

We’re right in the thick of spring training now, which means it’s about that time of year where Red Sox Nation falls in love with a prospect. What’s not to love about a hot new prospect? They offer hope, a seemingly unlimited ceiling, and the chance to get in on the ground floor of the next superstar. Unfortunately the road to superstardom is littered with the corpses of thousands of failed prospects, while only a relatively minor amount ever even come close to fulfilling the hype.

This year’s sexy prospect for the Sox is center fielder Jackie Bradley, Jr., who practically owns the 2014 starting center field position, even before former similarly hyped-up prospect Jacoby Ellsbury can even leave town. Bradley has everything you could want from a center fielder and leadoff hitter, youth, speed, defense, and great on base skills, but he still has only two years of professional ball under his belt, so Sox fans would be best advised to pump the brakes a bit on the hype train.

The Sox have maintained that they will not break camp with Bradley on the big league club, which is a wise move, despite the protests from some in the nation. He’s been playing wonderfully throughout spring training, but a little bit of Triple-A seasoning couldn’t hurt, and the inconsistent playing time he would receive with the Sox could slow his progression a bit. Unless Ellsbury goes down for a large portion of time, calling Bradley up before September would be unwise. Even counting him for 2014, while not a stretch, is still being optimistic.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Jackie as much as the next Sox fan, but I also know Boston fans can get carried away with young talent, even ones with more modest credentials than Bradley. Bradley, along with shortstop prospect Xander Boagaerts, certainly represent a bright future for the Sox, but I think this season will be best kept to the veterans, unless the Sox fall out of the playoff race and want to give the kids a few tire kicks. So table your Jackie Bradley, Jr. excitement a bit for right now, but dust it off if you ever get too down on the Sox, because the future is bright.

Check out my work over at the Boston Red Sox Blog. On today's menu: Mostly forgotten Wade Boggs replacement Scott Cooper.

Can the Indians Contend?

The Cleveland Indians were one of the worst teams in the Major Leagues last year, but with a new season comes new hope. The team made a lot of changes in the offseason including hiring former Red Sox manager Terry Francona, jettisoning soon to be free agent Shin-Soo Choo, and bringing in Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn among others. Theoretically the team looks to contend this season, but with the powerhouse Detroit Tigers looking down from the top of the AL Central, contention will be anything but easy.

The Indians look to have a strong top of the order that is arguably as good as any in baseball. Michael Bourn is a preeminent leadoff man, and following him up with Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Nick Swisher, and Carlos Santana is a strong top of the order. There's a bit of a drop off after that but Mark Reynolds, Michael Brantley, and Drew Stubbs have all been quality major leaguers at points in their careers.

The Indians should have enough offense to contend for at least a wild card spot, but the big question mark for the team is starting pitching. Ostensible ace Justin Masterson had a forgettable 2012, posting a 4.93 ERA  and 0.0 WAR. With only one truly good season with the Tribe under his belt there remain question about how good Masterson really is. I tend to believe he'll split the difference between his 2011 and 2012 season, and post ERA in the low 4s, but unless he can drop his walk rate he shouldn't be considered a top flight starter.

Even more questions surround former Cy Young candidate Ubaldo Jimenez who has been atrocious since coming over from the Rockies. I don't think there's any turning back for the Dominican at this point and he can only hope to be a league average starter. Zach McAllister and Brett Myers should be serviceable starters, but guys you'd more like as number 5s, than potential 2s and 3s. The club hopes to get something out reclamation project Daisuke Matsuzaka, but it seems unlikely that the former Red Sox will offer anything more than replacement level value.

The big hope for the Indians staff is that recently acquired Trevor Bauer and/or former top prospect Carlos Carrasco can catch lighting in a bottle. Bauer was dumped by the D-Backs but still remains one of the top prospects in the game. If he can live up to some of the hype this season, he would give a huge boost to a staff that desperately needs it. Carlos Carrasco is a bit more of a question mark as he attempts to come back from Tommy John surgery. Once the top prospect in the Phillies system before coming over to the Tribe in the Cliff Lee deal, Carrasco has been inconsistent in the majors thus far, but nonetheless has as much talent as anyone currently on the staff.

With a decent offense, great defense, and a solid bullpen the Indians could certainly contend if they can catch a few breaks with the pitching staff. Beating out the Tigers for the division title doesn't seem very likely, but with two wild card slots available the Indians still have a pretty good shot at a playoff spot. If the Tribe can find a way to acquire more starting pitching, they'd be in an even better spot, but as it stands now they'll need some career years from at least a couple of the starters if they hope to play in October.

Why Not Manny?

Let me start off by admitting that I am an unabashed Manny Ramirez fan, as much for helping to deliver two titles to the Red Sox, as the comedy gold he's wrought over the years. So the conceit of this post that a) he still has something to offer a team on the field and b) he wouldn't be a complete knucklehead, is admittedly pretty absurd. However, I'm not quite ready to lose Manny to Taiwan, so I'm going to attempt to shoehorn the mercurial 12-time All-Star onto some rosters.

Yankees 

The Yanks currently have brittle former Indian Travis Hafner penciled in at DH, and with the loss of Curtis Granderson for a month, the Bronx Bombers are in need of an extra outfielder. Sure by the time Manny actually gets in shape Granderson will be back, but he'll sell way more jerseys than whoever they throw out there. Plus, he can fill in at DH when Hafner inevitably goes down after the first month of the season. Would Joe Girardi stab him after about a week on the roster? Probably, but it would certainly lead to some snappy New York Daily News headlines.

Phillies

The Phillies are looking at some combo of Darin Ruf, Domonic Brown, John Mayberry Jr., and Delmon Young to patrol two outfield spots. Why not add a little Manny to the mix? He's probably in better shape than Delmon and can probably still get on base at a better clip than Brown or Mayberry. Would he be an absolute butcher in the outfield? You bet, but certainly the team responsible for signing Young can't be terribly worried about outfield defense.

Mets

The Mets need to make headlines this season and are also going into the year with an outfield that some pundits have actually considered calling the worst of all time. The solution to both problems: Manny. At the very least he'd be the first player to try to eat the giant apple in centerfield, which would be entertaining for all.

Orioles

Dan Duquette's biggest free agent signing of his career came when he lured Manny over to the Red Sox. Maybe he can recapture a little of the 2000's Sox magic (sure he got fired two year after signing Manny, but whateves) by bringing Manny on over to the O's. MLB Depth Charts tells me that the Orioles currently have a Wilson Betemit/Danny Valencia platoon penciled in at DH, so yeah, Manny could definitely be useful to that roster. Plus, Manny would've made a pretty awesome Wire character.

Blue Jays

If the Jays sign him he could become a Canadian citizen and recreate his famous American citizenship celebration. That's if he even realized he was in a different country. Plus, who wants to see Adam Lind at DH on that team anyway.

Marlins

Manny lives in the Miami area and the Marlins are gonna need to sell tickets after their latest fire sale fiasco. There's no way most people in Miami realize he hasn't been good in years and Jeffery Loria is certainly not above bamboozling his fan base.

Royals

Can't be any worse than Jeff Francoeur.

Diamondbacks

Kevin Towers seems intent on having an outfield logjam at all times, so go ahead an add Manny to it. Plus, you can tell him it's Mexico and watch with glee as he trots out to the field in a sombrero.

Indians

Just kidding Terry Francona.

Red Sox

Please...pretty please. At least give him one of those bullshit special assistant to the GM job, I just want Manny back in my life.

Dealing with Major Red Sox Injuries

My post yesterday about how the Yankees' will deal with the loss of Curtis Granderson for the first month of the season, got me thinking about how the Red Sox would deal with a major injury to a position player. This came up quite a bit last season with almost every starter hitting the DL at some point and the team did not have the depth to make up for it. In this post I'm going to take a look at how the team would deal with a starting position player going down for a significant amount of time.

Catcher

Unlike most teams in the Major Leagues, catcher is actually a spot where the Sox have some depth. The Sox will look to open the season with a Jarrod Saltalamacchia/David Ross platoon, with some Mike Napoli mixed in on occasion. The Sox also have prospect Ryan Lavarnway waiting in the wings. Although Lavarnway didn't hit well during his Major League stint last season, most believe he will eventually make a big impact in the majors. Should Salty or Moss go down for a significant portion of the season, the Sox would more than likely look to Lavarnway to fill the hole and possibly never give it up.

First Base

The Sox are going to look to newly acquired Mike Napoli to do the bulk of the work at first base this season, but having only played 133 career games at the position and having a balky hip, they'd be wise to plan for a trip to the DL for the former Ranger. The three options the team are looking at in camp are former Mariner Mike Carp, 36 year old journeyman Lyle Overbay, and last year's International League MVP Mauro Gomez. The man most people see as the alternative the Sox would go with is Mike Carp who has been basically replacement level in parts of 4 season with the M's. However, I think the Sox would be more wise to go with Mauro Gomez whom Fangraphs' Steamer system rated as the second best player in the league without a starting position. At 28, Gomez is far from an up and coming prospect, but his numbers in the International League (and his cup of coffee with the big club) indicate that Dominican may be a late-bloomer who could become an above average power threat.

Second Base

Perhaps the biggest possible injury that could happen to the Sox this season would be losing former MVP Dustin Pedroia. Although no team in the majors really has much depth at second, most teams also don't depend on their second basemen as much as the Sox do. The two best candidate in camp right now are 4A utility infielder Pedro Ciriaco and Brock Holt who was acquired from the Pirates in the Joel Hanrahan deal. Although Ciriaco started off hot when getting the call up to the big club last season, he tailed off, and his minor league numbers would lead you to believe that he would not be a suitable long term solution. Brock Holt, however, is an intriguing young man who has opened some eyes in spring training. Holt had a cup of coffee with the Pirates last year in which he neither distinguished, nor embarrassed himself. If the Sox are looking for steady replacement level play than Ciriaco will be their man, but if they're looking for the higher upside play, it'd be Holt.

Shortstop

At the starting shortstop position this year the Sox will look to Stephen Drew to bounce back to form after missing parts of the last couple of seasons with a broken ankle. Drew was a very productive player when healthy back in his Diamondback days, but having not played a full season in three years, the Sox will be holding they're breath that they get a full one out of him this year. The Sox will no doubt look to the same Ciriaco/Holt duo they have waiting in the wings at second, but should Drew go down for the season at some point and the Sox are in contention, they may make the bold move of calling up Baseball America's number 8 prospect in the country Xander Bogaerts. Although teams usually are not keen on calling up 20 year olds, the success of Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and to a lesser extent Manny Machado, may make teams in the thick of a playoff race rethink that philosophy. I don't think is a particularly likely scenario, but if the Sox are in the thick of a pennant race and Bogaerts continues to rake in the minors, fans may be clamoring to see him with or without a Drew injury.

Third Base

The Red Sox hope to get a full season out of last season's breakout performer Will Middlebrooks, and they do not have much depth to help out if he doesn't play out the string. The most likely fill in would be the aforementioned Ciriaco, with Holt never having played third base in his professional career. As I mentioned before Ciriaco would be a replacement level fill-in, so a long term injury to Middlebrooks would probably cause the club to do some hard thinking. Xander Bogaerts projects to play third for the Dutch WBC team, so if the Sox are in contention and Middlebrooks goes down (or is ineffective) the Sox could look to plug-in Bogaerts at third, much like the Orioles did last year with Machado.

Outfield

The Red Sox will start the season with big free agent signing Shane Victorino in right, talented but oft-injured Jacoby Ellsbury in center, and clown prince of outfielders Jonny Gomes in left. The Sox will look to break camp with a combination of the aforementioned Mike Carp, fan favorite Daniel Nava, and hater of doors Ryan Sweeney as their backup options. Although anyone of them could prove a capable replacement level short term fill-in, a long term injury could cause the Sox to call up Baseball America's 31 overall prospect in the country Jackie Bradley. The Sox already have long term designs on sticking Bradley in center if Ellsbury walks after this season, so another devastating injury to Ells could cause the Sox to speed up the process. A big injury to one of the other two outfielders may cause the Sox to shift alignments and stick Bradley in center and Ellsbury in left, as Bradley is considered to have one of the best gloves in minor league ball. Entering his age 23 season, Bradley is probably closer to big league ready than Bogaerts, so the team would likely see it as less of a developmental risk to call up Bradley this season.